Polling on the CA 2026 governor primary is tracked as the 270toWin running average, the same average cagovtracker.com uses. Steve Hilton leads the 270toWin average at 19 percent, with Tom Steyer at 15.6 percent, Xavier Becerra at 13.5 percent, and Chad Bianco at 12.7 percent. Below is the current 270toWin average and where to pull the underlying polls.
A poll is a guess based on a small sample (usually 600 to 1,200 people). The actual primary is decided by every California voter who casts a ballot. Bernie Sanders polled below 1% the year before he became a serious US presidential contender. Polls can change fast as voters tune in close to the deadline. Treat these numbers as a snapshot, not a prediction.
These numbers are the 270toWin polling average, the same average cagovtracker.com uses, synced May 19, 2026. The plan is to refresh this weekly from cagovtracker and 270toWin. Treat it as a snapshot, not a prediction.
El que va adelante hoy, no carga la boleta de mañana.
| Candidate | Party | 4-wk avg | High | Low | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Hilton | Republican | 19.0% | 20% | 17% | 5 |
| Tom Steyer | Democrat | 15.6% | 18% | 14% | 5 |
| Xavier Becerra | Democrat | 13.5% | 18% | 3% | 5 |
| Chad Bianco | Republican | 12.7% | 14% | 12% | 5 |
| Katie Porter | Democrat | 9.5% | 10% | 8% | 5 |
| Matt Mahan | Democrat | 5.7% | 7% | 4% | 4 |
| Antonio Villaraigosa | Democrat | 3.0% | 4% | 2% | 4 |
| Tony Thurmond | Democrat | 1.4% | 2% | 1% | 3 |
| Ramsey Robinson | P&F | n/d | n/d | n/d | 0 |
| Butch Ware | Green | n/d | n/d | n/d | 0 |
| Undecided | n/a | 18.0% | 25% | 14% | 5 |
La boleta no termina en el primer renglón.
The governor's race is the only contest on the June 2 ballot with a published polling average. Several down-ballot races are genuinely competitive, but they are not polled often enough, or publicly enough, to build a 270toWin-style average. Where a credible source describes the standing of a race in qualitative terms, we report it that way and say plainly that no horse-race numbers exist. We will not invent a percentage to fill a gap.
Incumbent Karen Bass faces her first genuinely competitive reelection after the January 2025 Palisades Fire. Thirteen certified challengers filed, and four candidates have emerged as frontrunners by polling and fundraising: Bass, Council Member Nithya Raman, reality-television figure Spencer Pratt, and housing organizer Rae Chen Huang. If no candidate exceeds 50 percent on June 2, the top two advance to a November runoff.
No public polling average is available for this race. What is on record is the candidate field and the debate-access thresholds: the NBC4/Telemundo and Fox11 debates used a 5 percent polling threshold for inclusion, and Rae Chen Huang did not clear it, which is why she was left out of both. Bass, Raman and Pratt did appear. That threshold is the only quantified polling signal in the public record for this race. For the money side of the contest, see the independent expenditures page.
Source: cagovtracker.com LA Mayor tracker, drawing on the LA City Ethics Commission, CalMatters, The Wrap and MyNewsLA, data current as of May 2026.
After California voters passed Proposition 50 in 2025, several congressional districts were redrawn to be more competitive. The Cook Partisan Voter Index, a standard measure of how a district leans, is published for these seats even when head-to-head polling is not:
No district-level horse-race polling average is available for these House races. The Cook PVI describes the district's partisan lean, not current voter preference. Treat it as a measure of the terrain, not a forecast of June 2.
Source: cagovtracker.com Congress tracker, citing Cook Political Report PVI ratings and 2024 results, data current as of May 2026.
We sync the 270toWin polling average rather than computing our own, so the standings here match what cagovtracker.com shows. 270toWin publishes its own averaging methodology.
A poll counts toward the average if it passes all four:
For each candidate, the average weights each qualifying poll by sample size (linear, capped at 1.5x at 1,000 LV) and recency (linear decay from 1.0 today to 0.0 at 14 days old). Polls that omit a candidate are excluded from that candidate's average but still count for others.
Berkeley IGS (UC Berkeley), PPIC (Public Policy Institute of California), USC/LA Times via NORC AmeriSpeak, Emerson College Polling, Probolsky Research, Tulchin Research, FM3 Research, J. Wallin Opinion Research, AP-NORC, SurveyUSA, Change Research, EMC Research, co/efficient, HarrisX.
Pull the underlying polls directly:
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